Use Case

Operational Excellence

Yield Forecast

Introduction

With Yield Forecasting, yield increase is inevitable. Higher yields means more revenue for everyone along the supply chain. 

Also, with climate change causing more intense disasters, crop yields are increasingly tough to gauge. For this reason, accurate predictions and yield forecasting are more critical than ever to ensure food security while protecting all agricultural value chain actors.

The Problem

Agri-business players are struggling to monitor their progress towards crop production targets. This is due to the lack of accurate first mile data, leading to an unreliable prediction of harvest yield.

Unpredictable Weather Events

Along with pests and diseases, climate-driven extreme weather events are increasing the uncertainty around crop yield estimation.

Lack of Data Integration

Purchasing crops from numerous cooperatives, with any number of members means you’ll need a platform that enables you to combine multiple yield datasets into one place and process them in an efficient way.

Imprecise Yield Estimates

Lack of expected yield means a lack of clarity for smallholders’ quota. Planning and mitigation cannot happen without accurate forecasting.

Nonhomogenous Results Under Similar Conditions

Not all farming activities are the same. With neighbouring producers, drastic differences in yields lead to room for improvement.

Due to poor first-mile traceability in their supply chains, fulfilling all these obligations is a major challenge for businesses.

Companies have struggled to:

Store and track weather indicators, agricultural inputs and other farm-level insights, thus maximising the accuracy of your yield forecast.

Optimise farming practices or spot negative growth trends before it’s too late, and stick to production targets.

Reduce fraud risk by accurately forecasting yields per region or producer.

With Farmforce Origin you can perform yield forecasting for an individual field and aggregate the forecast across all farmers growing crops for a particular production target in a planting campaign.

The Solution

With Farmforce, you can accurately foretell production volumes and implement shortages mitigation strategies in advance, if needed.

Accurate Forecast

By tracking fields’ health and activities and the total volume of crops purchased by your company, our software allows you to have a more reliable yield estimate.

Key Features

Standard Yield (Default): This is the expected yield under normal conditions for a cropping cycle and is calculated by multiplying the yield per unit of field (i.e., hectare) by the field surface.

Forecasted Yield (Estimate): This figure will change whenever field agents make predictions based on on-the-ground observations. For instance, when noticing the presence of weed in a field, staff can enter a yield reduction (%, Kg/ha, or Kg) using the yield forecast section. Operators can also upload pictures to support their educated guesses. Obviously, the forecasted yield will also be affected by weather indicators, agricultural inputs used, and other factors. All of these details can be recorded and stored within Farmforce.

Harvested Yield (Actual): This number represents the real yield at a certain stage of the harvesting season.

Farmer Database and GPS Mapping: If you don’t have database and associated with Farmer Database and GPS Mapping Yield Forecasting is not possible. Identifying differences is necessary to predict Yield Forecasting.

Seamless Data Aggregation

Farmforce lets you aggregate yield forecasts across multiple farmers and fields associated with a specific planting campaign. This enables you to track yields in a more effective fashion.

Key Features

Harvest Collection: This functionality allows you to record the amount of crop collected for each farmer and field. Also, you can assign a grade for each collection before paying the supplier. 

Harvest Purchases: Be it certified or not, here you’ll have an overview of all your purchases, which you can filter by farmer and field.

For more information about Harvesting and Purchasing Campaigns, see our dedicated Use Case.

Why Does It Matter?

Lower Fraud Risk, Greater Compliance

Starting from the expected yield, you can estimate smallholders’ quota, which is the maximum amount of produce that farmers can sell. Then, by checking growers’ deliveries against their relevant quota, your on-the-ground collaborators can identify the sale of potentially uncertified or forest-damaging crops. This increases your chances of complying with certification requirements and environmental regulations.

Profitability

Achieving higher production targets, traceability, and predictability will lead to greater market reliability, including more revenue for all value chain stakeholders.

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